CLASH – BETTING AND DFS STRATEGY

I cannot tell you how excited I am that NASCAR is back, and it all begins with the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum Betting and DFS Strategy. Thank you all for joining WIN THE RACE and embarking on this journey with me. We already have some extremely sharp minds signed up and in the Discord, so make sure you’re in there if you have not joined already.

Now, let’s get down to business with our Clash – Betting and DFS Strategy.

THE CLASH FORMAT

NASCAR Clash Format - Betting and DraftKings DFS Strategy

THE STARTING LINEUP

  1. Heat 1 winner
  2. Heat 2 winner
  3. Heat 3 winner
  4. Heat 4 winner
  5. Heat 1 second place
  6. Heat 2 second place
  7. Heat 3 second place
  8. Heat 4 second place
  9. Heat 1 third place
  10. Heat 2 third place
  11. Heat 3 third place
  12. Heat 4 third place
  13. Heat 1 fourth place
  14. Heat 2 fourth place
  15. Heat 3 fourth place
  16. Heat 4 fourth place
  17. Heat 1 fifth place
  18. Heat 2 fifth place
  19. Heat 3 fifth place
  20. Heat 4 fifth place
  21. LCQ 1 winner
  22. LCQ 2 winner
  23. LCQ 1 second place
  24. LCQ 2 second place
  25. LCQ 1 third place
  26. LCQ 2 third place

2022 points provisional

BETTING AND DFS STRATEGY

Track position is going to be our focus here. For betting and DFS purposes, we want to focus on the drivers starting in the first two rows. Last year only 3 drivers led laps in this race. They started: 1st, 2nd, and 4th. Haley started 3rd and had the 4th best driver rating.

FOR BETTING – we want to hit these numbers before we know the results of practice & qualifying on Saturday. This is risky as we do not know how these cars will show up, but I would imagine the betting numbers on drivers starting up front in the heat races will be reduced to rubble.

If we are focusing on track position, perhaps we should look at who was fast during qualifying on short, flat tracks last year:

NASCAR Qualifying Results from 2022 Short, Flat Tracks

Next, let’s add this into the Pre-Practice/Qualifying Ranks, along with their odds to win the Clash:

Now, we must ask ourselves: How do we want to weigh the results of last year’s clash, with how these drivers performed on short, flat tracks throughout the season? Personally, I want to weigh their performance over the course of the season much more than just 1 race, which also happened to be the first time these drivers ever raced these cars. If we can find a nugget or two from last year’s race that helps us make a final decision on a driver, great.

NOTE: I am not making any bets until I have more numbers from other books. I will update this article/post in Discord once final decisions are made.

Let’s start at the top.

Joey Logano 10/1 – The defending champion is the cream of the crop here. Not only does he hit the mark of being an elite driver on the short, flat tracks last year, he won the Clash. Last time we saw him his rocket ship won the pole at Phoenix, and last year he started 4th here. With a lot of drivers/teams changing in the Cup Series this year, nothing has changed here for Joey. I expect him to be show up fast on Saturday.

William Byron 15/1 –Byron made it to the final round of qualifying in 6/7 races on short, flat tracks last year. He also started last year’s Clash 7th. Beyond that, Byron has shown improvement on this track type, with my 5th best True Performance Rank on this track type and 3rd best average finish. With nobody in the industry talking about him, I am hoping to catch a number higher on him when the rest of the books post their lines. Perhaps that same book would have a nice T5 or T10 number for Byron.

Ryan Blaney 12/1 – This is where you need to decide if you’ll trust last year’s numbers more than how he performed in the Clash. Once the season hit, Blaney brought blazing fast cars to short, flat tracks, making the final round of qualifying in 5/7 races. He won 2 poles, and we most recently saw him land 2nd to his teammate, Logano. Like the aforementioned Logano and Byron, there are no changes on this team, so I would hope there are less questions about how this car shows up on Saturday.

Kevin Harvick 25/1 – We know Harvick excels on short, flat tracks as the numbers show in the chart, above. What you might not realize is that Harvick started 19th in the Clash last year, ran the 3rd most-fastest laps and finished 10th. If he can show up and qualify better on Saturday, perhaps Harvick could be a threat on Sunday. Where he sits right now in the odds could mean we see a decent T5 or T10 number on him. I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled when the rest of the books release their odds.

FOR DFS – we want to jam in at least 2 drivers from the front two rows that we think can lead the most laps. Once you have entered those 2-3 drivers in your lineup, the rest would consist of drivers we think can move up through the field and earn positive place differential points.

Here is how the DraftKings scoring broke down for last year’s Clash:

(Shoutout to my main man, jimbow265 in our Discord for providing this chart)

We will not know who we are looking at here until the heats and last chance races are over. Please make sure you are logged into Discord, as that will be where we can combine minds and discuss our favorite plays for Sunday night. I am not sure if I will be available or not, but I will do my best to chime in.

Thank you all for joining this team. I will always try my hardest to make us successful. Please use all of the tools this community provides, including Discord, where we can combine minds. If you’re not in there already, please hop in!

GOOD LUCK ALL. WIN THE RACE!

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Ryan Stevens

CEO of WIN THE RACE. NASCAR DFS & Betting. Creator of True Performance Ranks.