I know we have all been waiting a long time to place some bets, so I had to come out with a Clash – Betting Longshots piece. I’m still undecided if I want to lay any money on the favorites before practice/qualifying, but what we can do is put a small amount on some longshots who might see their odds get cut in half (or more) with a good showing Saturday. So, let’s dive right in.
CLASH LONGSHOTS
Ryan Preece 60/1 (FD Sportsbook) – Preece is now driving the #41 SHR car, which was 1 of only 9 cars to have a True Performance Rank inside the top-10 in all 7 short, flat tracks that were raced last year. This does not include the Clash, where it also ranked 10th in TPR for that race. I know Custer was the one driving this car last year, but what I love about Preece is that he grew up racing short tracks and is one of those guys who still travels around, racing other series on shorts. While Custer was able to have good TPR scores in those races, his actual finish never lived up to where the car could have finished. Custer made the final round of qualifying in 4/7 of those races, so we know the car shows up with speed. If it’s Preece whipping this thing around a short track, perhaps he qualifies even better, and if a few things go his way, finds himself out front.
Austin Dillon 60/1 (DK/FD Sportsbooks) – I know a lot of you reading this have “OG” status in following my material, and you know that on this site Austin Dillon will only be known as “AD3”. With the 6th best TPR in last year’s clash, and 6/7 TPR ranks inside the top-10 on short, flats last year, this number seems off. AD3 finished 3rd in the Clash and 3rd at Martinsville, which could prove to be relevant as they are running the same left side tire code they ran at Martinsville for both races last year. Both Reddick and AD3 showed up fast to this race last year, lending me to believe RCR has the notes to show up fast again this season. I know he is not Kyle Busch, but when your teammate is showing up with odds to win that are 8 times better than yours, you finished 3rd here last year and at Martinsville, something is not right with those odds.
Ty Gibbs 75/1 (FD/Caesers Sportsbooks) – I do not want to compare Ty Gibbs to future HOF driver Kyle Busch, but I do want to make it clear this “18” (now 54) car should be fast. I would expect nothing less from my Grandfather, and this family seems tight like mine. Ty has wins in Xfinity at Richmond, Phoenix, and Martinsville. While I know there is no “true comp” to this track, it’s nice to know that he can win in a fast car on a shorter, flatter track. We also know he is not afraid to move a driver ahead of him, which could be needed this weekend if someone wants to make a name for themselves. 75/1 is simply too far for what should be a fast JGR car in an exhibition race.
I also have one driver who is not as much a longshot as the previous 3, but his odds stick out compared to where I have him ranked.
Chase Briscoe 30/1 (DK Sportsbook) – Briscoe ranks 10th overall in my Pre-P/Q Ranks.
Here are the odds for the drivers just ahead of his 30/1: Truex, 25/1 – I have him 13th. Keselowski 25/1 – I have him 17th.
He has the same odds to win as Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace, who I have ranked 23rd and 24th. This number of 30/1 does not make sense. Briscoe made the final round of qualifying on 4/7 short, flat tracks last year, including 3rd place qualifying efforts in the most recent 2. He also won at Phoenix, so he has proven he can win at this level. Chase is not afraid to drive his car into a corner and make some things happen. If he shows up fast on Saturday, this number will be 1/3 of what it is right now.
The WIN THE RACE Pre-Practice/Qualifying Ranks referenced can be found here: https://www.wintherace.info/pre-practice-qualifying-ranks/
LONGSHOT BETS
Thank you all for checking out the CLASH – BETTING LONGSHOTS. As always, I would recommend betting well within your means. The NASCAR season is a long one, and at WIN THE RACE, we will focus on remaining disciplined. I appreciate you all, let’s have a fun weekend.
