Front Runners

Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway

Front Runners highlights the drivers that lead laps, run fast laps, and run inside the top 10, 5, & 3 the most at correlated track types.

Sonoma is a 1.99 mile long road course with 12 turns. The track features 160 feet of elevation change from its highest to lowest point. While some may be tempted to lump all road courses together, it is important to keep in mind that not all road courses are the same. In fact, in 2022 the r squared for incident adjusted speed between Sonoma and the other road courses varied pretty extremally. The most correlated track was Road America with an r squared of .766. The lowest correlation was with Watkins Glen at just .229. COTA had a correlation of .466 and the Charlotte Roval had correlation of .426.

Given the variation in correlation we have a number of data sets to look at here. First we have the 2022 races of Sonoma along with Road America and the Indy Road Course. Second we have 2022 Sonoma and 2023 COTA, which despite the significant difference in tire fall off (around 1.6% at Sonoma vs 0.5% at COTA) will use the same tire code this year. Finally, we have all road courses in the Gen 7 car.

That said, none of these data sets are as good as some we have looked at recently. There is a great deal of variation even among the most similar tracks. For example, looking at Sonoma, Road America, and the Indy Road Course, 13 drivers who are registered for Sunday’s race completed 50% of their laps inside the Top 10 for at least one race. Of those 13, only four of them, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell, and Daniel Suarez, completed 50% of their laps inside the Top 10 at all three races though. Four additional drivers, Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, and Tyler Reddick, completed 50% of their laps inside the Top 10 at two of three races. Its also important to remember that the number of laps in each race varies by a lot, so this can throw results off.

The charts below are sorted by percentage of laps led by default. There are also a few more columns that you can choose to display but for ease of display those columns are hidden by default.

Laps run inside the Top 10, 5, 3, and led as percentage laps driver completed at 2022 Sonoma, 2022 Road America, and 2022 Indy Road Course.

wdt_ID Driver Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run %
1 Ross Chastain 3 2 166 65.10 1 68 26.67 0 16 6.27 0 0 0.00 4 1.90 255 98.84
2 Austin Cindric 3 3 146 56.59 2 56 21.71 1 28 10.85 0 0 0.00 3 1.42 258 100.00
3 Austin Dillon 3 0 28 10.89 0 4 1.56 0 3 1.17 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 257 99.61
4 Kevin Harvick 3 2 91 38.56 1 52 22.03 0 24 10.17 0 0 0.00 5 2.37 236 91.47
5 Kyle Larson 3 1 108 47.16 1 81 35.37 1 75 32.75 0 26 11.35 16 7.58 229 88.76
6 Brad Keselowski 3 1 46 17.83 0 33 12.79 0 5 1.94 0 3 1.16 10 4.74 258 100.00
7 Corey LaJoie 3 0 4 1.61 0 2 0.80 0 1 0.40 0 0 0.00 2 0.95 249 96.51
8 Kyle Busch 3 0 42 16.28 0 18 6.98 0 11 4.26 0 0 0.00 6 2.84 258 100.00
9 Chase Elliott 3 2 189 73.26 1 130 50.39 1 117 45.35 0 62 24.03 45 21.33 258 100.00
10 Aric Almirola 3 0 14 7.11 0 9 4.57 0 3 1.52 0 0 0.00 2 0.95 197 76.36
11 Denny Hamlin 3 0 48 18.60 0 9 3.49 0 3 1.16 0 1 0.39 3 1.42 258 100.00
12 Ryan Blaney 3 1 160 62.99 0 81 31.89 0 57 22.44 0 21 8.27 3 1.42 254 98.45
13 Chase Briscoe 3 0 66 25.58 0 40 15.50 0 35 13.57 0 9 3.49 0 0.00 258 100.00
14 Rick Ware 15 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
15 AJ Allmendinger 3 2 75 29.07 0 32 12.40 0 12 4.65 0 3 1.16 3 1.42 258 100.00
16 Chris Buescher 3 3 158 61.24 1 113 43.80 1 81 31.40 0 4 1.55 25 11.85 258 100.00
17 Martin Truex Jr 3 0 53 20.54 0 3 1.16 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 3 1.42 258 100.00
18 Christopher Bell 3 0 72 27.91 0 39 15.12 0 23 8.91 0 17 6.59 14 6.64 258 100.00
19 Harrison Burton 3 1 34 13.18 1 7 2.71 1 3 1.16 0 1 0.39 0 0.00 258 100.00
20 Joey Logano 3 1 54 20.93 0 23 8.91 0 13 5.04 0 4 1.55 0 0.00 258 100.00
21 Bubba Wallace 3 1 42 26.75 1 15 9.55 0 12 7.64 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 157 60.85
22 William Byron 3 1 82 41.41 0 41 20.71 0 14 7.07 0 0 0.00 6 2.84 198 76.74
23 Justin Haley 3 0 14 5.43 0 5 1.94 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 3 1.42 258 100.00
24 Michael McDowell 3 3 213 82.88 1 106 41.25 1 45 17.51 0 0 0.00 2 0.95 257 99.61
25 Zane Smith 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
26 Ryan Preece 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
27 Noah Gragson 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
28 Erik Jones 3 0 21 8.14 0 2 0.78 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 258 100.00
29 Tyler Reddick 3 2 183 77.87 2 156 66.38 2 102 43.40 2 54 22.98 31 14.69 235 91.09
30 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 3 0 13 5.08 0 1 0.39 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 256 99.22
31 Alex Bowman 3 0 73 30.80 0 8 3.38 0 6 2.53 0 0 0.00 2 0.95 237 91.86
32 Todd Gilliland 3 1 45 17.79 1 9 3.56 0 4 1.58 0 4 1.58 1 0.47 253 98.06
33 Ty Gibbs 1 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 86 33.33
34 Ty Dillon 3 0 27 12.05 0 11 4.91 0 6 2.68 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 224 86.82
35 Josh Bilicki 3 0 6 2.33 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 258 100.00
36 Daniel Suarez 3 2 196 75.97 2 115 44.57 1 67 25.97 1 47 18.22 18 8.53 258 100.00
Driver Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run %

Laps run inside the Top 10, 5, 3, and led as percentage of laps driver completed at 2022 Sonoma and 2023 COTA

wdt_ID Driver Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run %
1 Ross Chastain 2 2 134 72.43 1 54 29.19 0 27 14.59 0 0 0.00 5 3.57% 185 100.00
2 Austin Cindric 2 2 94 50.81 1 38 20.54 0 21 11.35 0 2 1.08 4 2.86% 185 100.00
3 Austin Dillon 2 0 51 29.65 0 19 11.05 0 10 5.81 0 0 0.00 1 0.71% 172 92.97
4 Kevin Harvick 2 1 98 52.97 1 58 31.35 0 24 12.97 0 0 0.00 5 3.57% 185 100.00
5 Kyle Larson 2 0 67 36.22 0 32 17.30 0 27 14.59 0 26 14.05 15 10.71% 185 100.00
6 Brad Keselowski 2 1 34 20.48 0 24 14.46 0 4 2.41 0 3 1.81 2 1.43% 166 89.73
7 Corey LaJoie 2 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 176 95.14
8 Kyle Busch 2 1 61 32.97 1 24 12.97 1 19 10.27 0 0 0.00 6 4.29% 185 100.00
9 Chase Elliott 1 1 77 70.00 0 49 44.55 0 48 43.64 0 26 23.64 14 10.00% 110 59.46
10 Aric Almirola 2 0 14 7.61 0 9 4.89 0 3 1.63 0 0 0.00 1 0.71% 184 99.46
11 Denny Hamlin 2 0 28 15.14 0 1 0.54 0 1 0.54 0 0 0.00 3 2.14% 185 100.00
12 Ryan Blaney 2 1 75 40.54 0 18 9.73 0 2 1.08 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 185 100.00
13 Chase Briscoe 2 0 27 14.59 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 185 100.00
14 Rick Ware 15 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 0 0.00
15 AJ Allmendinger 2 0 58 34.12 0 31 18.24 0 20 11.76 0 0 0.00 3 2.14% 170 91.89
16 Chris Buescher 2 2 123 66.49 1 106 57.30 1 83 44.86 0 5 2.70 16 11.43% 185 100.00
17 Martin Truex Jr 2 0 18 9.73 0 12 6.49 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 3 2.14% 185 100.00
18 Christopher Bell 2 0 29 15.85 0 4 2.19 0 3 1.64 0 1 0.55 9 6.43% 183 98.92
19 Harrison Burton 2 0 10 5.41 0 1 0.54 0 1 0.54 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 185 100.00
20 Joey Logano 2 0 62 33.51 0 12 6.49 0 11 5.95 0 5 2.70 0 0.00% 185 100.00
21 Bubba Wallace 2 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 19 10.27
22 William Byron 2 2 92 49.73 1 68 36.76 0 60 32.43 0 28 15.14 7 5.00% 185 100.00
23 Justin Haley 2 0 7 3.78 0 5 2.70 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 3 2.14% 185 100.00
24 Michael McDowell 2 1 140 75.68 1 81 43.78 1 51 27.57 0 0 0.00 1 0.71% 185 100.00
25 Zane Smith 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 0 0.00
26 Ryan Preece 1 0 14 20.59 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 68 36.76
27 Noah Gragson 1 0 14 18.67 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 75 40.54
28 Erik Jones 2 0 18 9.73 0 2 1.08 0 1 0.54 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 185 100.00
29 Tyler Reddick 2 1 117 68.02 1 96 55.81 1 58 33.72 1 41 23.84 13 9.29% 172 92.97
30 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 2 1 19 10.27 0 1 0.54 0 1 0.54 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 185 100.00
31 Alex Bowman 2 1 113 61.08 1 33 17.84 1 5 2.70 0 0 0.00 2 1.43% 185 100.00
32 Todd Gilliland 2 1 9 4.86 0 1 0.54 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 1 0.71% 185 100.00
33 Ty Gibbs 1 1 10 13.33 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 1 0.71% 75 40.54
34 Ty Dillon 2 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 111 60.00
35 Josh Bilicki 2 0 4 2.16 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00% 185 100.00
36 Daniel Suarez 2 1 169 91.35 1 141 76.22 1 75 40.54 1 48 25.95 22 15.71% 185 100.00
Driver Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run %

Laps run inside the Top 10, 5, 3, and led as percentage of laps driver completed at all road courses in 2022 and 2023

wdt_ID Driver Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run %
1 Ross Chastain 7 4 323 54.56 3 160 27.03 1 81 13.68 1 34 5.74 25 5.26 592 98.01
2 Austin Cindric 7 5 274 45.36 2 109 18.05 1 68 11.26 0 13 2.15 17 3.58 604 100.00
3 Austin Dillon 7 2 141 23.90 0 40 6.78 0 26 4.41 0 6 1.02 3 0.63 590 97.68
4 Kevin Harvick 7 3 189 32.47 2 114 19.59 1 35 6.01 0 4 0.69 6 1.26 582 96.36
5 Kyle Larson 7 2 225 39.47 2 137 24.04 2 112 19.65 1 31 5.44 35 7.37 570 94.37
6 Brad Keselowski 7 1 55 9.40 0 34 5.81 0 5 0.85 0 3 0.51 11 2.32 585 96.85
7 Corey LaJoie 7 0 32 5.49 0 19 3.26 0 13 2.23 0 0 0.00 2 0.42 583 96.52
8 Kyle Busch 7 2 187 31.01 2 68 11.28 2 47 7.79 0 0 0.00 15 3.16 603 99.83
9 Chase Elliott 6 4 410 77.50 3 299 56.52 1 217 41.02 0 121 22.87 74 15.58 529 87.58
10 Aric Almirola 7 0 17 3.14 0 11 2.03 0 3 0.55 0 0 0.00 4 0.84 542 89.74
11 Denny Hamlin 7 0 85 14.07 0 26 4.30 0 8 1.32 0 4 0.66 3 0.63 604 100.00
12 Ryan Blaney 7 2 253 42.17 0 134 22.33 0 76 12.67 0 22 3.67 11 2.32 600 99.34
13 Chase Briscoe 7 1 140 23.18 0 69 11.42 0 62 10.26 0 18 2.98 6 1.26 604 100.00
14 Rick Ware 15 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
15 AJ Allmendinger 7 4 329 55.95 2 216 36.73 1 153 26.02 0 30 5.10 39 8.21 588 97.35
16 Chris Buescher 7 6 241 39.90 1 131 21.69 1 86 14.24 0 5 0.83 27 5.68 604 100.00
17 Martin Truex Jr 7 1 110 18.21 0 15 2.48 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 5 1.05 604 100.00
18 Christopher Bell 7 3 255 42.36 2 66 10.96 2 34 5.65 1 20 3.32 17 3.58 602 99.67
19 Harrison Burton 7 1 47 7.79 1 14 2.32 1 8 1.33 0 1 0.17 0 0.00 603 99.83
20 Joey Logano 7 2 204 33.77 1 96 15.89 1 72 11.92 0 49 8.11 7 1.47 604 100.00
21 Bubba Wallace 7 2 53 12.99 1 16 3.92 0 12 2.94 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 408 67.55
22 William Byron 7 2 198 36.40 1 137 25.18 0 101 18.57 0 28 5.15 19 4.00 544 90.07
23 Justin Haley 7 1 129 21.36 1 74 12.25 0 22 3.64 0 0 0.00 6 1.26 604 100.00
24 Michael McDowell 7 4 431 71.48 1 198 32.84 1 101 16.75 0 14 2.32 14 2.95 603 99.83
25 Zane Smith 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
26 Ryan Preece 1 0 14 20.59 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 68 11.26
27 Noah Gragson 2 0 50 26.74 0 1 0.53 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 1 0.21 187 30.96
28 Erik Jones 7 2 108 17.88 0 13 2.15 0 6 0.99 0 1 0.17 7 1.47 604 100.00
29 Tyler Reddick 7 6 471 81.07 4 403 69.36 3 279 48.02 3 120 20.65 64 13.47 581 96.19
30 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 7 1 43 7.35 0 6 1.03 0 2 0.34 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 585 96.85
31 Alex Bowman 6 2 198 42.04 2 75 15.92 2 19 4.03 0 0 0.00 8 1.68 471 77.98
32 Todd Gilliland 7 2 74 13.81 1 22 4.10 0 11 2.05 0 9 1.68 6 1.26 536 88.74
33 Ty Gibbs 4 1 13 3.58 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 4 0.84 363 60.10
34 Ty Dillon 7 0 52 10.48 0 31 6.25 0 7 1.41 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 496 82.12
35 Josh Bilicki 5 0 6 1.49 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 402 66.56
36 Daniel Suarez 7 3 348 58.10 3 223 37.23 1 124 20.70 1 63 10.52 32 6.74 599 99.17
Driver Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run %

Thanks for checking out the Front Runners! Let’s WIN THE RACE!

, ,

Greg Matherne

Director of Betting Content, WIN THE RACE. NASCAR DFS & Betting.