Front Runners – 2023 HighPoint.com 400, Pocono Raceway

HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono Raceway

Front Runners highlights the drivers that lead laps, run fast laps, and run inside the top 10, 5, & 3 the most at correlated track types.

The NASCAR Cup Series makes is lone trip to the tricky triangle of Pocono Raceway on Sunday. For the first time in what seems like ages we may even have a dry weekend at the track.

Pocono doesn’t have any true similar tracks in terms of shape, length, and banking. At 2.5 miles long it is longer than any other intermediate track. The closest tracks in terms of length and banking are Auto Club (rest in peace) and Michigan. Despite the unique track design, we can still get useful information out of a good number of tracks. My incident adjusted speed metric shows useful correlation between Pocono and the three 1.5-mile ovals the Cup Series has raced at in 2023, as well as very strong correlation between Pocono and Nashville. I’m speculating, but I suspect that despite the significant difference in length, the correlation is due to the use of the same intermediate package, along with the 14 degree banking at Nashville being closer to Pocono’s turns than the 20 plus degree turns at the 1.5-mile tacks.

Given that we still six races to use if we only consider 2023 results from Auto Club, the 1.5-mile ovals, and Nashville, along with the 2022 Pocono results, I am focusing on just those six races to keep an emphasis on 2023 speed plus Gen 7 Pocono experience.

The charts below are sorted by percentage of laps led by default. There are also a few more columns that you can choose to display but for ease of display those columns are hidden by default.

Laps run inside the Top 10, 5, 3, and led as percentage laps driver completed at 2022 Pocono and 2023 Auto Club, Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte, and Nashville

Pocono Front Runners

wdt_ID Driver Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run %
1 William Byron 6 4 1,250 78.32 3 990 62.03 3 651 40.79 1 282 17.67 104 8.19 1,596 99.87
2 Ross Chastain 6 3 1,111 70.32 3 820 51.90 2 578 36.58 1 210 13.29 85 6.69 1,580 98.87
3 Ryan Blaney 6 1 840 59.36 1 532 37.60 1 412 29.12 1 186 13.14 97 7.64 1,415 88.55
4 Denny Hamlin 6 4 1,289 93.20 3 891 64.43 3 586 42.37 2 177 12.80 103 8.11 1,383 86.55
5 Kyle Larson 6 4 1,019 65.32 3 591 37.88 2 476 30.51 0 167 10.71 120 9.45 1,560 97.62
6 Martin Truex Jr 6 5 1,222 76.47 2 786 49.19 2 442 27.66 0 134 8.39 107 8.43 1,598 100.00
7 Kyle Busch 6 4 969 64.90 2 388 25.99 2 277 18.55 1 103 6.90 100 7.87 1,493 93.43
8 Tyler Reddick 6 3 754 50.84 2 517 34.86 0 344 23.20 0 86 5.80 86 6.77 1,483 92.80
9 Christopher Bell 6 3 884 64.24 1 461 33.50 0 177 12.86 0 69 5.01 55 4.33 1,376 86.11
10 Joey Logano 6 2 519 34.37 0 266 17.62 0 173 11.46 0 36 2.38 20 1.57 1,510 94.49
11 Alex Bowman 5 2 505 37.94 1 264 19.83 1 125 9.39 0 27 2.03 54 4.25 1,331 83.29
12 Kevin Harvick 6 2 642 40.20 1 200 12.52 0 66 4.13 0 24 1.50 36 2.83 1,597 99.94
13 Chase Elliott 5 4 682 61.33 3 234 21.04 2 102 9.17 0 13 1.17 42 3.31 1,112 69.59
14 Bubba Wallace 6 4 823 52.42 3 266 16.94 0 97 6.18 0 13 0.83 30 2.36 1,570 98.25
15 Chris Buescher 6 1 337 21.13 0 40 2.51 0 30 1.88 0 12 0.75 17 1.34 1,595 99.81
16 Erik Jones 6 1 239 15.54 0 49 3.19 0 21 1.37 0 11 0.72 4 0.31 1,538 96.25
17 Michael McDowell 6 1 109 6.85 0 40 2.51 0 29 1.82 0 11 0.69 29 2.28 1,591 99.56
18 Brad Keselowski 6 1 539 33.73 0 169 10.58 0 60 3.75 0 9 0.56 55 4.33 1,598 100.00
19 Corey LaJoie 6 0 75 4.70 0 20 1.25 0 14 0.88 0 7 0.44 2 0.16 1,597 99.94
20 Ty Dillon 6 0 31 2.03 0 17 1.11 0 5 0.33 0 4 0.26 1 0.08 1,527 95.56
21 Harrison Burton 6 0 40 2.52 0 30 1.89 0 22 1.38 0 4 0.25 6 0.47 1,590 99.50
22 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 6 1 341 21.37 0 14 0.88 0 6 0.38 0 4 0.25 6 0.47 1,596 99.87
23 Austin Dillon 6 3 226 14.16 0 41 2.57 0 15 0.94 0 3 0.19 5 0.39 1,596 99.87
24 Noah Gragson 6 0 57 4.36 0 35 2.68 0 16 1.23 0 2 0.15 6 0.47 1,306 81.73
25 Daniel Suarez 6 3 547 34.23 2 155 9.70 0 37 2.32 0 2 0.13 29 2.28 1,598 100.00
26 Ty Gibbs 6 0 417 27.73 0 110 7.31 0 21 1.40 0 0 0.00 16 1.26 1,504 94.12
27 AJ Allmendinger 5 1 182 13.86 0 15 1.14 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 7 0.55 1,313 82.17
28 Cole Custer 1 0 13 8.13 0 5 3.13 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 160 10.01
29 Ryan Preece 5 0 61 4.61 0 12 0.91 0 6 0.45 0 0 0.00 2 0.16 1,323 82.79
30 Justin Haley 6 1 59 3.70 0 5 0.31 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 11 0.87 1,596 99.87
31 Aric Almirola 6 0 37 2.49 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 23 1.81 1,483 92.80
32 Todd Gilliland 6 0 25 1.72 0 6 0.41 0 1 0.07 0 0 0.00 2 0.16 1,455 91.05
33 Chase Briscoe 6 0 23 1.45 0 1 0.06 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 4 0.31 1,587 99.31
34 JJ Yeley 6 0 23 1.45 0 12 0.76 0 2 0.13 0 0 0.00 1 0.08 1,587 99.31
35 BJ McLeod 4 0 4 0.39 0 3 0.30 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 1 0.08 1,015 63.52
36 Austin Cindric 6 1 5 0.32 0 2 0.13 0 1 0.06 0 0 0.00 4 0.31 1,547 96.81
Driver Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run %

Note – Since most books grade bets using the pre-inspection “unofficial” results, the chart above credits Denny Hamlin with a win here last year and Kyle Busch with a second place finish. As a result it does not credit Chase Elliott with a win, Tyler Reddick or Daniel Suarez with a Top 3, Christopher Bell or Kyle Larson with a Top 5, and finally it does not credit Erik Jones or Austin Dillon with a Top 10.

Thanks for checking out the Front Runners! Let’s WIN THE RACE!

, , ,

Greg Matherne

Director of Betting Content, WIN THE RACE. NASCAR DFS & Betting.