Last week was rough, after a strong qualifying effort, Toyota seemed to have some trouble mid race, which hurt the Toyota heavy card. That said, the process remained strong, even if the results were not quite there, and those of you that took the Sim Center’s top bet cashed in on Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr., and Tyler Reddick to all finish Top 10 at +325.

Homestead is the last intermediate track race of the year. The track differs from the other 1.5-mile tracks on the schedule in that it is a true oval, rather than a tri or quad-oval. The track also eats tires. So my primary focus will be on last year’s race at homestead and the two races this year at Darlington, another intermediate track with high tire wear. That said, I am also looking at performance at the other 1.5-mile tracks. In 2022 the correlation of incident adjusted speed between the 1.5-mile tri- and quad-ovals was over .7 for all 6 races.

Last year Kyle Larson dominated this race, and he has been dominate on the high tire wear tracks this year as well. He was a contender for the win at Darlington 1, won the second Darlington race, and dominated last week at Last Vegas, where tire wear was the highest of any 1.5-mile track so far this year. That said, I doubt we see much value on Larson. His dominance on this kind of track is well known, so books will likely open him at under +400 and I just don’t see value at that price. But given his dominance, am also going to be leery of outrights overall. So my focus will likely be on T3/5/10 and group/matchups.

2023 Homestead Betting Card

Pre-Practice/Qualifying

Denny Hamlin +800 to Win (Caesars): 1u to win 8

I was probably going to bet on Denny at 7-1, but Caesars moving him longer to 8-1 means I can’t pass. Denny has three wins here, he had 5 straight poles (although yes a few were by metric). If we look at ‘22 Homestead and ‘23 Darlington races he has the second most laps led and second most fastest laps at those races. If we look at ‘23 races at Darlington and 1.5-mile tracks he has the second most laps led and if we drill down to just Kansas, which outside of Darlington has been higher tire wear he again has the second most laps led.

All of these second place stats are second to rightful race favorite Kyle Larson. But Larson’s odds (along with Tyler Reddick who is also very good here) are so short right now that they are creating value on Denny. Am I setting myself up for pain when Larson absolutely dominates and wins by 15 seconds? Maybe, but I can’t pass on this value. If you somehow don’t have access to Caesars and want to play him at +700 I am OK with that too.

Denny Hamlin +125 to finish Top 5 (Betway): 1u to win 1.25

This is a hedge of sorts against Kyle Larson doing Kyle Larson things and running away with this race by 15 seconds. I’m going all the way down to the Top 5 market rather than just the Top 3 to also sidestep Byron, Reddick, and Truex. By going all the way down to the Top 5 market the three other drivers with the strongest Homestead skill set can finished ahead of Denny and still let us get out of the weekend positive on Denny. He as a 51.28% Top 5 rate at Darlington and the 1.5-mile tracks in 2023, well clear of the 44.44% implied at +125. I would be this at +120 which is available at a bunch of books as well.

Brad Keselowski +105 to finish Top 10 (Bet365): 2.1u to win 2

Keselowski has the 2nd most top 10 laps at ‘23 Darlington and ‘22 Homestead. He was great last week at Vegas. 65% Top 10 rate across all 1.5s plus Darlington this year. 5/8 Top 10 finishes. Brad seems to have found something on the intermediates, his speed has been Top 10 in my incident adjusted metric at almost every intermediate in ‘23, including 3rd last week at Vegas, 6th at Texas, and 7th at Kansas.

Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin +170 to both finish Top 10 (Caesars): .5u to win .85

If I could go back and do it over I would have done a full unit on this and just 1.05 on Brad K alone. The Speed Geeks’ Sim has this at fair down at +116 or so. I wouldn’t go that low, but I like both drivers here and think there is plenty of value here down to around +150.

Kevin Harvick +140 to finish Top 10 (Bet365): 1u to win 1.4

I did a full writeup on this at Daily Downforce, but the short story is that Harvick is just plain good here, no mater what else seems to have happened in a given year. He is 19 for 22 in finishing inside the Top 10 here. That’s good enough for me.

Austin Dillon +600 to finish Top 10 (BetFred): .5u to win 3.

He is oddly good here, three Top 10 finishes in 9 starts plus four other finishes of 11 or 12. He is somehow always right on the verge of the Top 10 here, so +600 is just off to me. I would even take the +550 that’s available at a few other books.

Last Week’s Card for Las Vegas 2