Racing Awareness 2024 is a comprehensive breakdown of the NASCAR DFS articles I’m going to put out for the Cup Series every race weekend. The goal of this article is to make every Racing Awareness as convenient, useful, and effective as possible.
NEW CHART
I’ll still post DraftKings projections on the site here, but I have created what I hope is a chart that is very easy to read. Using the last NASCAR race we saw in Phoenix, here is where this chart landed using my DraftKings projections:
You will be able to sort, add/remove columns, download the CSV, etc.
CASH
“Cash games” referring to DraftKings Double Up-50/50-H2H contests.
The obvious column to look at when creating NASCAR DFS cash lineups would be “Cash”. We need drivers from all different price ranges, so it’s best to highlight the drivers with the best “Cash Rank” in each price range:
I will still put Clean Air out every race day, but this chart will give you a good idea of where to go for cash games. While Blaney & Byron rank 1 & 2 in the “Cash” column, they also rank 1 & 2 in “Overall”. This is why I would pick them over Kyle Larson. Ultimately, we went with Byron, with this explanation from Clean Air here:
The cash lineup we landed on with the highlighted drivers was: Byron – Keselowski – Elliott – Almirola – Briscoe – Haley. We cashed.
TOURNAMENT
“Overall, Tourney, and “Leverage” need to be thought about, and used together.
The most obvious column to look at when trying to find some tournament leverage would be, “Leverage”. This column is derived from my Ownership Projection and my DraftKings Projection. We need drivers from all different price ranges, so it’s best to highlight the drivers with the best “Leverage Rank” in each price range:
The “Tourney” column, is really only there so you know who I would not consider for cash games. The next best column I’d go to for tournaments would be “Overall”. An example I’ll use from the above is Tyler Reddick vs Brad Keselowski. If you only look at the leverage column, Reddick is 10 spots higher and projected at only 13% ownership. Meanwhile, Keselowski’s leverage rank is low as he’s projected to be chalk. This is where I’d go to the “Tourney” column and see how they ranked… similarly. Next, I’d want to look at the “Overall” column to get a better idea of how everything put into this model truly believes in each driver. This model clearly likes Keselowski more, so I’d hate to avoid a “chalky play” just to jam in a “leverage play” that all my hard work doesn’t really believe in.
Another example would be Chase Briscoe & Aric Almirola. Everything put into this model clearly states that both are strong plays, but everyone knows that, so the ownership projections reflect that. That doesn’t mean you’d want to only play them in cash and fade them in tournaments. Perhaps you want to only play one of the two in most of your lineups, go underweight on one or both, or whatever strategy you think is best. In this particular race, splitting them up would’ve worked nice. Briscoe scored 22.75, while Almirola scored 45. NASCAR DFS is like many other sports. You can afford to have some chalky pieces and still do well in tournaments, as long as some of your lineup features decent leverage.
CONCLUSION
These are not bullet proof.
Here’s how the scoring actually shook out for Phoenix 2. I have highlighted the drivers this hit or missed.
Green = Hit.
Orange = Missed.
As you can see, more good than bad here. 2 of the top 3 leverage plays spanked, and the 4th had a middling performance (Bubba). The 2nd and 3rd ranked “leverage” plays ended up being optimal, along with 1 of the top 2 ranked “overall” ranked drivers.
The big misses were Logano, Gibbs, and McDowell. I do not count Bell, as he wrecked out and was a Championship 4 driver. Starting 13th he was a no brainer to include in lineups. A. Dillon (aka AD3, copyright) is also one that I do not count as a miss. He had a lucky finish compared to how he raced. McDowell was a true miss, and his True Performance was indicative of his finish. While we missed out on McDowell, some absolute killer lineups could’ve been created using everything I have broken down in this article.
Will every race be like this? No. There are Superspeedways where you could close your eyes, select 6 drivers and be optimal. There are other races where things just won’t go as projected. NASCAR DFS is a volatile game. While I’ve been a successful player for years, I will take some lumps from time to time. You need to learn to take the good with the bad. A consistent presence is preferred, as you need those good weeks to outweigh the bad. It’s also why I play cash games, as these cover me more times than not when tournament lineups fail.
One thing I do know – there is no sweat like NASCAR DFS. Perhaps maybe UFC? Where a single kick, punch, or submission could end a fight at any moment? That’s the only sweat I could possibly compare to NASCAR. You’re not safe until your drivers take that checkered flag.
I hope this all made sense and will be a convenient tool for you in 2024. As always, I can promise every member of this team will be working hard to give you all we can to help you succeed.
SEE YOU SOON!
Thank you all again for taking the time to check this out. If you’re a new visitor to WIN THE RACE, please check out our Content Schedule. We have numerous convenient, useful, and effective tools to utilize if you’re playing NASCAR DFS or Betting.
