Listen, I know NASCAR Betting is Greg’s area of expertise, but I saw something today that I just cannot pass up. I wanted to write something about this because, A – the line might move, and B – it’s nice for those who aren’t in our Discord. (Link to join our Discord is in Your Profile)

THE BET

TYLER REDDICK +100
TO
SCORE MORE CHAMPIONSHIP POINTS
THAN
JOEY LOGANO
(CAESARS SPORTSBOOK)

WHY?

I know Logano might have been suffering from a “Super Bowl Hangover” last year, but it’s more than that. Tyler Reddick, along with this 23XI team, has been improving every year. Let’s break this down from a schedule standpoint. I’ll start with the track types we’ll see the most, and end at what we’ll see least.

“Intermediate Package” – 17 Races (13 Regular Season)

“Short Track Package” – 8 Races (6 Regular Season)

“Drafting Package” – 6 Races (4 Regular Season)

“Road Course Package” – 5 Races (3 Regular Season)

As you can see, Tyler Reddick continued his improvement in 2023. He and 23XI remained great in “Intermediate” package, but what I loved to see what his improvement in this “Short Track Package”. I knew he improved, but was surprised to see he actually had a better Top 10% in the True Performance Ranks on the shorter, flat tracks.

The largest difference between the two would be how they perform in the Drafting Package vs the Road Course Package. This is another reason why I give Reddick the advantage. Drafting races are the most volatile races we see, while road courses have not been. In any given drafting race, Reddick could survive and beat Logano, even if solely based on luck. The probability of that happening on a road course is much less.

IN CONCLUSION

Even if Joey Logano bounces back in 2024, I think that could be negated by Reddick taking yet another step forward. Caesars has set this line as -130 (56.52% implied) in favor of Logano. I think that -130 belongs on Tyler Reddick’s side. I know tying money up for NASCAR Betting over the next 40 weeks is less than ideal, but I’m betting this.

LFG 45.