WTR Fam! Welcome to another edition of Race Day Strategies, covering the NASCAR Truck Series and NASCAR Xfinity Series from a DFS strategy perspective. In this article, we will lay out past trends from previous relevant races, show the winning lineups for the flagship GPPs of those races, and give a high-level look at possible lineup construction based on this info and track type.
If you have not done so already, I would encourage you to read our NASCAR DFS Strategy Primer as this article will often piggyback on the strategies mentioned there. I will also say, as I mentioned in our primer, that these strategies are meant to be guardrails and not rules that are set in stone. Practice and Qualifying play a crucial role in dictating final strategy and builds. As this article is released mid-week, we encourage all members to check out our Discord for more discussions on strategy after the results of practice and qualifying are known.
Without further delay, let’s dive into Daytona!
Race Info and Trends
Available Dominator Points
45 pts – Fastest Laps
25 pts – Laps Led
Lap Leaders
2024 #1 – 14 Different Leaders
2023 #2 – 9 Different Leaders
2023 #1 – 11 Different Leaders
2022 #2 – 12 Different Leaders
2022 #1 – 9 Different Leaders
2021 #2 – 8 Different Leaders
2021 #1 – 11 Different Leaders
Fastest Laps
2024 #1 – 29 Drivers, no more than 7 laps
2023 #2 – 31 Drivers, no more than 6 laps
2023 #1 – 25 Drivers, no more than 7 laps
2022 #2 – 30 Drivers, no more than 4 laps
2022 #1 – 32 Drivers, no more than 8 laps
2021 #2 – 26 Drivers, no more than 8 laps
2021 #1 – 34 Drivers, no more than 7 laps
Cautions – 9, 6, 8, 10, 6, 7, 9 – Avg. 7.9
DNFs – 11, 13, 10, 18, 12, 6, 18 – Avg. 12.6
PD+FP Pts per Driver for Winning Lineup – Avg. 52.88
2024 #1 – 53.00
2023 #2 – 54.67
2023 #1 – 48.17
2022 #2 – 58.50
2022 #1 – 49.83
2021 #2 – 47.17
2021 #1 – 58.83
% of Laps Led per Race by Winning Lineup – Avg. 18.8%
2024 #1 – 22.5% (27/120)
2023 #2 – 0.0% (0/110)
2023 #1 – 32.0% (40/125)
2022 #2 – 1.7% (2/118)
2022 #1 – 33.3% (40/120)
2021 #2 – 42.0% (42/100)
2021 #1 – 1.6% (2/122)
% of Fastest Laps per Race by Winning Lineup – Avg. 18.0%
2024 #1 – 15.4% (10/65)
2023 #2 – 22.9% (16/70)
2023 #1 – 26.7% (23/86)
2022 #2 – 18.2% (12/66)
2022 #1 – 20.7% (18/87)
2021 #2 – 9.7% (6/62)
2021 #1 – 8.6% (6/70)
Winning Flagship GPP Lineups
Roster Construction Strategy
GENERAL THOUGHTS
We are back at a Superspeedway and that means we have a few ground rules to consider when building lineups this week:
- Dominator points are mostly meaningless
- Place Differential is KING
- Salary remaining means nothing
As mentioned in the NASCAR DFS Strategy Primer Superspeedways have a very unique style as it relates to the DFS game. Dominator points, specifically points for Fastest Laps, are almost completely random due to the draft and pack racing. While a driver leading laps can make the difference in a winning GPP lineup at a Superspeedway, it’s not typically advised to chase them, especially in cash games.
The nature of pack racing at Superspeedways ramps up the randomness in more than just dominator points. Cars will move forward and fall back in the pack quickly and wrecks typically involve a large number of cars. As noted above, since 2021 (7 races) the average number of DNFs (Did Not Finish) per race is over 12 and only once has that number been in the single-digits. For DFS purposes, this benefits cars starting close to the rear of the field creating a low-risk, high-reward opportunity for them.
It’s not often, even in NASCAR DFS, where the salary left on the table after constructing your lineup doesn’t mean something. In most spots, having any more than $1000 left means you can likely upgrade somewhere to bring your remaining amount closer to $0. Throw that all out the window here. At Superspeedways, the draft and pack racing is the great equalizer. Typically non-competitive cars, while not having single-car speed in qualifying, can hang around the main pack of cars. Add to that all the randomness mentioned above and they can find their way into career-best finishing positions by the time it’s all said and done. Because of everything we’ve mentioned up to this point, these cars are some of the best targets in cash games and tournaments.
CASH
- As always, this is qualifying-dependent
- Targeting cars near the back of the field with place differential upside
- I hesitate to use the term “Stack the Back” just because I think there’s more nuance involved and simply playing the last six cars on the grid isn’t an ideal strategy.
TOURNAMENTS
- Try to establish lineup rules if building more than 3 lineups
- Example – no more than 1 driver starting 1-12
- Spread out your exposure
- Totally dependent on your appetite for risk, but I usually try to limit my exposure to about 40% on any one driver.
That’s all for this edition of Raceday Strategies for the Xfinity Series! I hope this helps everyone with their mindset as we approach building lineups for the NASCAR Xfinity Series race this weekend! One last time, these are high-level guardrails and not set-in-stone rules. We will have much more discussion in Discord as we lead up to lineup lock for these races. Not a member? Sign up today and get 50% off your first month or week of your Monthly or Weekly subscription! Good luck!
