Front Runners highlights the drivers that lead laps, run fast laps, and run inside the top 10, 5, & 3 the most at correlated track types. If you want a more detailed overview of how the data in Front Runners is organized and what it means, check out this Front Runners Tutorial Video. There is also a short written overview below.
Track Overview
The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season comes to an end on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. Phoenix is a 1-mile tri-oval with minimal banking. The turns at Phoenix are progressively banked between eight to 11 degrees. The track does not have particularly aggressive tire wear. This means there can be a decision for teams on taking two vs four tires in some instances. When trying to handicap Phoenix the short flat tracks of Richmond, New Hampshire, and Iowa provide the most predictive data. While Martinsville is a short flat track, the track is only around 1/2 the length of Phoenix and features such different turns that data from Martinsville is not typically the most helpful.
Datasets for Front Runners
As this will be the sixth short flat track race in 2024 we have just two data sets. The first set is the five short flat track races in 2024 Phoenix (1), New Hampshire (1), Iowa (1), and Richmond (2). The second set is the five races in the Gen 7 car at Phoenix.
Front Runners Breakdown
The charts below are sorted by percentage of laps led by default. There are also a few more columns that you can choose to display but for ease of display those columns are hidden by default. First, some notes on the data:
- How percentages are calculated:
- For laps in the Top 10, 5, 3, and led, the calculation is laps that driver completed in those positions divided by laps that driver has completed.
- For fastest laps the calculation is fast laps recorded by the driver divided by all fast laps in the data set. Unfortunately its would be very complicated and overly time consuming to calculate how many fast laps were available while the driver was still running.
- For laps run the calculation is laps completed by the driver divided by all laps possible in the data set.
- Average running position is weighted by how much of a race the driver completed. So a driver completing 50% of one race with an average running position of 5 and 100% of a second race with an average running position of 15, will have a calculated average running position of 11.67, not 10, because the second race has twice as much weight.
- Fin-Start takes the average finishing position of a driver and subtracts the driver’s average starting position from it. Negative numbers mean a driver has improved from the start, positive numbers mean the driver’s finishing position is worse than their starting position.
- Fin-ARP take the the average finishing position of a driver and subtracts the driver’s average running position from it. As with Fin-Start, negative numbers show finishes better than average running position, while positive numbers show finishes worse than the driver’s average running position. In effect, positive numbers mean a driver has been unlucky, negative numbers suggest a driver has been lucky.
2024 Phoenix (1), New Hampshire (1), Iowa (1), and Richmond (2)
| Driver | Make | Races | T10 Fin | T10 Laps | T10% | T5 Fin | T5 Laps | T5% | T3 Fin | T3 Laps | T3% | Wins | Led | LL% | Fast Laps | FL% | Laps | Laps Run % | Ave Run | Ave Start | Ave Finish | Fin-Start | Fin-ARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | Toyota | 5 | 5 | 1,193 | 67.02 | 3 | 822 | 46.18 | 2 | 600 | 33.71 | 2 | 337 | 18.93 | 228 | 15.36 | 1,780 | 99.89 | 7.99 | 12.20 | 3.60 | -8.60 | -4.39 |
| Martin Truex Jr | Toyota | 5 | 3 | 1,027 | 63.36 | 1 | 720 | 44.42 | 0 | 548 | 33.81 | 0 | 281 | 17.33 | 127 | 8.56 | 1,621 | 90.97 | 10.20 | 11.60 | 14.40 | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| Denny Hamlin | Toyota | 5 | 2 | 1,143 | 64.29 | 2 | 923 | 51.91 | 2 | 682 | 38.36 | 1 | 251 | 14.12 | 112 | 7.55 | 1,778 | 99.78 | 9.72 | 7.80 | 12.40 | 4.60 | 2.68 |
| Kyle Larson | Chevrolet | 5 | 3 | 981 | 56.25 | 2 | 680 | 38.99 | 1 | 503 | 28.84 | 0 | 237 | 13.59 | 93 | 6.27 | 1,744 | 97.87 | 10.41 | 10.60 | 12.40 | 1.80 | 1.99 |
| Ryan Blaney | Ford | 5 | 2 | 940 | 52.81 | 2 | 552 | 31.01 | 1 | 360 | 20.22 | 1 | 201 | 11.29 | 107 | 7.21 | 1,780 | 99.89 | 10.82 | 8.60 | 12.20 | 3.60 | 1.38 |
| Tyler Reddick | Toyota | 5 | 4 | 945 | 53.12 | 1 | 556 | 31.25 | 1 | 281 | 15.80 | 0 | 129 | 7.25 | 52 | 3.50 | 1,779 | 99.83 | 10.11 | 11.00 | 10.20 | -0.80 | 0.09 |
| Daniel Suarez | Chevrolet | 5 | 2 | 533 | 29.94 | 0 | 226 | 12.70 | 0 | 172 | 9.66 | 0 | 97 | 5.45 | 56 | 3.77 | 1,780 | 99.89 | 16.57 | 16.00 | 15.00 | -1.00 | -1.57 |
| Ty Gibbs | Toyota | 5 | 1 | 335 | 18.85 | 1 | 195 | 10.97 | 1 | 155 | 8.72 | 0 | 57 | 3.21 | 40 | 2.70 | 1,777 | 99.72 | 15.10 | 13.80 | 16.40 | 2.60 | 1.30 |
| Chase Elliott | Chevrolet | 5 | 3 | 1,144 | 64.31 | 2 | 527 | 29.62 | 1 | 297 | 16.69 | 0 | 52 | 2.92 | 62 | 4.18 | 1,779 | 99.83 | 8.95 | 3.80 | 10.80 | 7.00 | 1.85 |
| Austin Dillon | Chevrolet | 5 | 1 | 371 | 21.41 | 1 | 175 | 10.10 | 1 | 105 | 6.06 | 1 | 35 | 2.02 | 16 | 1.08 | 1,733 | 97.25 | 22.61 | 23.20 | 21.80 | -1.40 | -0.81 |
| Josh Berry | Ford | 5 | 2 | 1,015 | 57.12 | 1 | 490 | 27.57 | 1 | 259 | 14.58 | 0 | 34 | 1.91 | 52 | 3.50 | 1,777 | 99.72 | 11.73 | 16.40 | 12.20 | -4.20 | 0.47 |
| Todd Gilliland | Ford | 5 | 0 | 484 | 27.19 | 0 | 193 | 10.84 | 0 | 82 | 4.61 | 0 | 33 | 1.85 | 27 | 1.82 | 1,780 | 99.89 | 16.49 | 17.60 | 15.80 | -1.80 | -0.69 |
| Chris Buescher | Ford | 5 | 3 | 597 | 33.58 | 2 | 177 | 9.96 | 1 | 66 | 3.71 | 0 | 16 | 0.90 | 25 | 1.68 | 1,778 | 99.78 | 14.63 | 13.00 | 10.40 | -2.60 | -4.23 |
| Brad Keselowski | Ford | 5 | 3 | 580 | 32.58 | 1 | 94 | 5.28 | 0 | 25 | 1.40 | 0 | 5 | 0.28 | 27 | 1.82 | 1,780 | 99.89 | 15.14 | 16.80 | 13.20 | -3.60 | -1.94 |
| Bubba Wallace | Toyota | 5 | 1 | 829 | 47.70 | 1 | 430 | 24.74 | 0 | 133 | 7.65 | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | 28 | 1.89 | 1,738 | 97.53 | 12.04 | 13.60 | 16.80 | 3.20 | 4.76 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | Chevrolet | 5 | 2 | 249 | 14.09 | 1 | 147 | 8.32 | 0 | 48 | 2.72 | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | 12 | 0.81 | 1,767 | 99.16 | 20.39 | 25.00 | 20.40 | -4.60 | 0.01 |
| Joey Logano | Ford | 5 | 2 | 1,245 | 74.64 | 1 | 951 | 57.01 | 1 | 517 | 31.00 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 58 | 3.91 | 1,668 | 93.60 | 9.86 | 11.80 | 18.60 | 6.80 | 8.74 |
| Carson Hocevar | Chevrolet | 5 | 1 | 173 | 9.74 | 0 | 23 | 1.29 | 0 | 7 | 0.39 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 13 | 0.88 | 1,777 | 99.72 | 19.70 | 18.80 | 16.20 | -2.60 | -3.50 |
| Erik Jones | Toyota | 5 | 0 | 88 | 4.98 | 0 | 65 | 3.68 | 0 | 48 | 2.71 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 15 | 1.01 | 1,768 | 99.21 | 23.65 | 24.40 | 23.80 | -0.60 | 0.15 |
| William Byron | Chevrolet | 5 | 2 | 897 | 50.39 | 1 | 404 | 22.70 | 1 | 227 | 12.75 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 45 | 3.03 | 1,780 | 99.89 | 10.82 | 7.60 | 13.20 | 5.60 | 2.38 |
| Ross Chastain | Chevrolet | 5 | 3 | 778 | 43.71 | 1 | 153 | 8.60 | 0 | 12 | 0.67 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 25 | 1.68 | 1,780 | 99.89 | 12.15 | 12.40 | 9.40 | -3.00 | -2.75 |
| Michael McDowell | Ford | 5 | 1 | 528 | 29.70 | 0 | 62 | 3.49 | 0 | 30 | 1.69 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 37 | 2.49 | 1,778 | 99.78 | 18.63 | 23.00 | 17.40 | -5.60 | -1.23 |
| Alex Bowman | Chevrolet | 5 | 1 | 462 | 28.61 | 0 | 122 | 7.55 | 0 | 82 | 5.08 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 15 | 1.01 | 1,615 | 90.63 | 15.69 | 16.80 | 21.80 | 5.00 | 6.11 |
| Chase Briscoe | Ford | 5 | 2 | 309 | 17.39 | 1 | 68 | 3.83 | 1 | 49 | 2.76 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 14 | 0.94 | 1,777 | 99.72 | 18.89 | 18.80 | 15.60 | -3.20 | -3.29 |
| Noah Gragson | Ford | 5 | 0 | 255 | 14.34 | 0 | 17 | 0.96 | 0 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 15 | 1.01 | 1,778 | 99.78 | 17.93 | 16.80 | 17.40 | 0.60 | -0.53 |
| Justin Haley | Chevrolet | 5 | 0 | 236 | 13.30 | 0 | 19 | 1.07 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 9 | 0.61 | 1,775 | 99.61 | 23.59 | 29.60 | 25.00 | -4.60 | 1.41 |
| Kyle Busch | Chevrolet | 5 | 0 | 201 | 12.43 | 0 | 50 | 3.09 | 0 | 6 | 0.37 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 46 | 3.10 | 1,617 | 90.74 | 20.90 | 19.00 | 24.80 | 5.80 | 3.90 |
| Ryan Preece | Ford | 5 | 0 | 101 | 5.69 | 0 | 39 | 2.20 | 0 | 35 | 1.97 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 31 | 2.09 | 1,775 | 99.61 | 21.80 | 25.80 | 22.80 | -3.00 | 1.00 |
| Austin Cindric | Ford | 5 | 0 | 48 | 3.27 | 0 | 8 | 0.54 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 11 | 0.74 | 1,469 | 82.44 | 22.83 | 22.20 | 26.40 | 4.20 | 3.57 |
| Harrison Burton | Ford | 5 | 0 | 43 | 2.43 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 0.27 | 1,772 | 99.44 | 27.11 | 26.60 | 25.40 | -1.20 | -1.71 |
| Corey LaJoie | Ford | 5 | 0 | 39 | 2.35 | 0 | 9 | 0.54 | 0 | 6 | 0.36 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 20 | 1.35 | 1,663 | 93.32 | 27.30 | 26.00 | 29.40 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| John H. Nemechek | Toyota | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 0.40 | 1,773 | 99.49 | 27.40 | 26.80 | 23.00 | -3.80 | -4.40 |
| Kaz Grala | Ford | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 7 | 0.47 | 1,362 | 76.43 | 31.08 | 32.50 | 29.00 | -3.50 | -2.08 |
| Zane Smith | Chevrolet | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 14 | 0.94 | 1,769 | 99.27 | 28.90 | 27.20 | 29.60 | 2.40 | 0.70 |
| Daniel Hemric | Chevrolet | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 0.34 | 1,770 | 99.33 | 31.61 | 30.00 | 29.60 | -0.40 | -2.01 |
Gen 7 (2022 – present) Phoenix (5)
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Front Runners are great to compare with our other Advanced Analytics. Check out our Pre-Practice/Qualifying Ranks, and Sim Center as well!
Thank you all for taking the time to look at this. Let’s WIN THE RACE !
