Hello WIN THE RACE Fam!
I’ve just completed projecting the entire 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season and am excited to share my 2025 Projections & Power Rankings with you all! To start, I ran projections using only True Performance Scores, factoring in the types of races throughout the regular season and each playoff round to determine who would advance and ultimately crown the Champion. Then, I re-ran the analysis using actual NASCAR scoring to see if the results differed. While there were a few notable differences, one Champion consistently emerged.
I’ll begin with the regular season, breaking down the drivers who did not project to make the playoffs into two categories:
- “Rearview Regulars”: Drivers unlikely to snag a lucky win and make the playoffs.
- “Stuck in Neutral”: Drivers with an outside shot at making the playoffs, either through strong performances or a lucky win. However, they do not seem to have a realistic chance of winning the Championship.
Once we’ve covered the regular season, we’ll dive into each playoff round:
- Round of 16: The 4 drivers who did not make it to the Round of 12.
- Round of 12: The 4 drivers who did not make it to the Round of 8.
- Round of 8: The 4 drivers who did not make it to the Championship 4.
- Championship 4: The 3 drivers who did not win the Championship.
- 2025 Cup Series Champion: The winner!
*For all but Cole Custer, I’ll include a 2024 True Performance vs Actual Finish chart summarizing each driver’s 2024 performance, along with some brief thoughts. I’ll use the 36 drivers we know have full-time rides.
*These will be for members only. You can click here to sign up if you’re interested in joining our team.
🚨MEMBERS ONLY: CLICK HERE FOR THE ADVANCED VERSION OF THE ARTICLE🚨
Now, let’s dive in! We’ll start at the back of the pack and work our way up to my predicted 2025 Champion. Let’s go!
REGULAR SEASON
Regular Season Races: Daytona (x2), Atlanta (x2), COTA, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville, Darlington, Bristol, Talladega, Texas, Kansas, Charlotte, Nashville, Michigan, Mexico City, Pocono, Chicago Street, Sonoma, Dover, Indianapolis, Iowa, Watkins Glen, Richmond.
“Rearview Regulars”
Cody Ware
2025 Team: #15 or #51, Rick Ware Racing
Ty Dillon
2025 Team: #10, Kaulig Racing
Riley Herbst
2025 Team: #35, 23XI Racing
John H. Nemechek
2025 Team: #42, Legacy Motor Club
Erik Jones
2025 Team: #43, Legacy Motor Club
Zane Smith
2025 Team: #38, Front Row Motorsports
Josh Berry
2025 Team: #21, Wood Brothers Racing
Cole Custer
2025 Team: #41, Haas Factory Team
“Stuck in Neutral”
Austin Dillon
2025 Team: #3, Richard Childress Racing
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
2025 Team: #47, HYAK Motorsports
Justin Haley
2025 Team: #7, Spire Motorsports
AJ Allmendinger
2025 Team: #16, Kaulig Racing
Shane van Gisbergen
2025 Team: #88, Trackhouse Racing
Ryan Preece
2025 Team: #60, RFK Racing
Michael McDowell
2025 Team: #71, Spire Motorsports
Todd Gilliland
2025 Team: #34, Front Row Motorsports
Daniel Suarez
2025 Team: #99, Trackhouse Racing
Carson Hocevar
2025 Team: #77, Spire Motorsports
Noah Gragson
2025 Team: #4, Front Row Motorsports
Austin Cindric
2025 Team: #2, Team Penske
ROUND OF 16
Round of 16 Races: Darlington, Gateway, Bristol.
4 Drivers Who Didn’t Make It to the Round of 12
Kyle Busch
2025 Team: #8, Richard Childress Racing
Bubba Wallace
2025 Team: #23, 23XI Racing
Chris Buescher
2025 Team: #17, RFK Racing
Chase Briscoe
2025 Team: #19, Joe Gibbs Racing
ROUND OF 12
Round of 12 Races: New Hampshire, Kansas, Charlotte Roval.
4 Drivers Who Didn’t Make It to the Round of 8
Joey Logano
2025 Team: #22, Team Penske
Alex Bowman
2025 Team: #48, Hendrick Motorsports
Brad Keselowski
2025 Team: #6, RFK Racing
Ty Gibbs
2025 Team: #54, Joe Gibbs Racing
ROUND OF 8
Round of 8 Races: Las Vegas, Talladega, Martinsville.
4 Drivers Who Didn’t Make It to the Championship 4
Ross Chastain
2025 Team: #1, Trackhouse Racing
Denny Hamlin
2025 Team: #11, Joe Gibbs Racing
Chase Elliott
2025 Team: #9, Hendrick Motorsports
Tyler Reddick
2025 Team: #45, 23XI Racing
CHAMPIONSHIP 4
Championship Race: Phoenix.
3 Drivers Who Did Not Win the Championship
William Byron
2025 Team: #24, Hendrick Motorsports
Kyle Larson
2025 Team: #5, Hendrick Motorsports
Ryan Blaney
2025 Team: #12, Team Penske
2025 CUP SERIES CHAMPION
Christopher Bell
2025 Team: #20, Joe Gibbs Racing
Please head to Discord and X and let me know what you think of these 2025 Cup Series Projections & Power Rankings.
- Who should move up or down the Power Rankings?
- Which drivers did I eliminate that you think could sneak into the playoffs?
- Are there any sleepers that you think could win the Championship?
Let me know what you think, and thank you all for taking the time to read this!
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