2024 Cup Series Predictions were ran using the same method I used last year. In 2023, I used True Performance Ranks to predict the upcoming season. Sure enough, the Ryan Blaney Championship prediction came to fruition!
I brought our Director of Betting Content, Greg Matherne, in here to give his thoughts on each round of predictions. You can also find Greg’s work on the Action Network, and Daily Downforce. Thank you all for taking the time to read this. We cannot wait for the 2024 season to start!
2024 CUP SERIES PREDICTIONS
REGULAR SEASON
Intermediate Package = 13 Races
Short, Flat Package = 6 Races
Road Course Package = 3 Races
Drafting Package = 4 Races
Greg, based on the upcoming schedule for 2024, do you see any drivers you think these 2024 Cup Series Predictions have overrated?
The most obvious driver I disagree on is Ty Gibbs. Gibbs has been in the Cup Series for a year and a half now and started 51 races. 15 of those were in 2023, when he was filling in for Kurt Busch and still running Xfinity full time. That said, outside of the first start where he was thrown in the day of the race, I think they are probably a valid part of his sample.
In his 51 starts Gibbs has 11 Top 10 finishes. He has four Top 5 finishes. And he hasn’t finished inside the Top 3 at all. He has lead 114 laps, with 102 of those coming at Bristol this fall. Is Gibbs improving? Absolutely. Six of his Top 10 finishes have been in the past 16 races, which is a respectable 37.5%. Most importantly, even if Gibbs does improve and finds his way into the playoffs, which is very possible, because I think Josh Berry may be in for a rough rookie season letting Gibbs in at 16th, I don’t see Gibbs winning in 2024.
Who, outside of the top 16 here, would you have the easiest time bumping up into the playoff picture?
The drivers I see as most likely to make the Playoffs that the projections have listed as being on the outside are Erik Jones and Alex Bowman. Jones and Legacy Motor Club found something in the playoffs last year. They managed to find something despite the fact that they had already announced they were leaving Chevy and moving to Toyota, meaning they were almost certainly getting less manufacturer support than any other Chevy team. The move to Toyota should be a big boost to Jones. Additionally, having both Darlington races in the regular season should be a big boost to his playoff chances given his strong history at that track.
Bowman’s 2023 season was ruined by an injury and penalties. He missed three races in the middle of the season due to a serious he sustained racing a Sprint Car in April. Prior to the injury Bowman was ninth in the standings after 10 races and that’s counting a 60-point penalty. He had six Top 10 finishes and would have been one point behind Christopher Bell for the points lead absent the penalty. When Bowman returned he wasn’t close to the same driver he had been before the injury. It is clear that the injury was lingering the rest of the year. With a few months off to fully recover I expect him to come back and be strong out of the gate.
ROUND OF 16
Atlanta (Drafting Package)
Watkins Glen (Road Course Package)
Bristol (Intermediate Package)
Greg, the Round of 16 will see a “Superspeedway(ish)” race using the drafting package, a road course race using the short track/road course package, and a short track race using the intermediate package. Do you think the 2024 Cup Series Predictions got it right?
As noted above, I think we have some different drivers in the playoffs. I’m going to move Gibbs down to 16th, in on points. I’m also going to put in Jones and Bowman with wins, bumping Berry and Bubba. In this round I think we eliminate Gibbs, Bowman, Jones, and Reddick.
ROUND OF 12
Kansas (Intermediate Package)
Talladega (Drafting Package)
Charlotte Roval (Road Course Package)
Greg, the projections see more of the same here. Perhaps Reddick, Gibbs, or Elliott could sneak in with a win at a road course? Do you think someone could sneak in with a win here? Or, someone snubbed from the Round of 16 that you had advancing then, and could see making it to the Round of 8?
My Round of 12 would be Larson, Truex, Hamlin, Byron, Bell, Keselowski, Blaney, Buescher, Logano, Chastain, Elliott, and Busch. Eliminated this round, Keselowski, Busch, Blaney, and Truex. That said, if Reddick makes this round I think he has a strong chance to advance. Kansas and the Roval are both good tracks for him.
ROUND OF 8
Las Vegas (Intermediate Package)
Homestead (Intermediate Package)
Martinsville (Short Track Package)
Again, no movement here. With the schedule set up the way it is, the 2024 Cup Series Predictions are utilizing True Performance Ranks and see the same drivers exceling in the same situations. Overall, I don’t think it would surprise anyone that 2 HMS and 2 JGR cars make up the Championship 4. What do you think, Greg? Who should be in and out of this Championship 4?
My Round of 8 is therefore, Larson, Hamlin, Byron, Bell, Buescher, Chastain, Elliott, and Logano. This round we finally have a bit more predictability as compared to the first two rounds since we don’t have a road course or drafting track, the biggest wildcard here will be Martinsville. I’m going to eliminate Byron, Elliott, Buescher, and Logano.
CHAMPIONSHIP 4
Phoenix (Short, Flat Package)
The 2024 Cup Series Predictions have Denny Hamlin finally taking a Championship home. My only worry here would be his shoulder injury that he said could linger into March, or further. I wonder what kind of effect that will have on his performance. Greg, who do you have winning the Championship in 2024?
So, my Final 4 are Larson, Hamlin, Bell, and Chastain. I’ve swapped one JGR driver, Truex, for another, Bell, and I’m putting in Chastain because I think he has a bounce back year after a 2023 “sophomore slump” following his breakout season in 2022. As for my Champion? Well I have a medium sized free bet placed on Chastain and if he makes it here I think he is a real threat. But he isn’t my pick, by putting him back in the final I’ve now got Bell in the Championship Four in back to back to back seasons. I think he finally gets it done. So I’m crowning Christopher Bell as your 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.
AND SOME PREDICTIONS (FOR FUN)
WHY JOSH BERRY?
Because this is for fun! Josh Berry was legit good in competitive cars at a handful of races last year. Berry had 3 top 10 finishes, twice where True Performance Ranks deemed the finish was legit (Richmond & Dover). Although he did not do well in his try at Las Vegas, he historically crushed there in Xfinity (2 wins and 4 top 5’s in 6 races). Also in Xfinity, he’s won at Charlotte, and has won and never finished outside the top 3 at Dover. In Cup, he was also solid and held his own at Atlanta 1 in a competitive car. Anything can happen in the 6 drafting races! We know SHR can bring winning cars to the short tracks and are solid in that specific package. I have to believe they can take a step forward this year in the intermediate package (it would be impossible to go backwards).
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