Listen, I know NASCAR Betting is Greg’s area of expertise, but I saw something today that I just cannot pass up. I wanted to write something about this because, A – the line might move, and B – it’s nice for those who aren’t in our Discord. (Link to join our Discord is in Your Profile)

THE BET

DENNY HAMLIN -110
TO
SCORE MORE CHAMPIONSHIP POINTS
THAN
RYAN BLANEY
(CAESARS SPORTSBOOK)

WHY?

I talked about the “Super Bowl Hangover” with Logano in the last H2H bet, and now we have his teammate coming off a Championship as well. I know “Super Bowl Hangover” is not real analysis, so let’s also break this down from a schedule standpoint. I’ll start with the track types we’ll see the most, and end at what we’ll see least.

“Intermediate Package” – 17 Races (13 Regular Season)

“Short Track Package” – 8 Races (6 Regular Season)

“Drafting Package” – 6 Races (4 Regular Season)

“Road Course Package” – 5 Races (3 Regular Season)

Denny was unreal last year. Although he and his team made some silly mistakes that sometimes hurt their finishing position, he was stronger than Ryan Blaney until the last few races. I believe the addition of Tyler Reddick has helped him revamp his road course prowess, so the main difference here would be that Blaney has been better in the drafting races. Let’s buzz back to what I wrote with Reddick and Logano. Drafting races are volatile, so the “worse drafter” can beat the better one anytime. However, where this is different than that example, is that Denny Hamlin is an elite racer on drafting tracks. I would have to think the changes Toyota made to their front end wouldn’t make them inferior in any package, but it looks like drafting races is where we could see this change benefit most. Perhaps Denny gets back on top in drafting races in 2024. He’ll also have a few extra Toyota’s to potentially work with.

IN CONCLUSION

In their careers in the Cup Series together, Denny has beaten Blaney in the points in all but 2 years.

2016 Denny
2017 Denny
2018 Blaney (by 1 spot)
2019 Denny
2020 Denny
2021 Denny
2022 Denny
2023 Blaney Wins Championship (Denny 1st up outside the Champ 4)

Denny is implied to win this season long matchup just 52.38% of the time, and I just don’t think that’s right. I would make Denny the favorite in this matchup, based on all of the current and historic data. Again, I know it stinks tying NASCAR Betting money up for 40 weeks, but I am taking this.

LFG 11.