Front Runners – Cup Series – Phoenix Raceway – NASCAR Cup Championship 500

Front Runners highlights the drivers that lead laps, run fast laps, and run inside the top 10, 5, & 3 the most at correlated track types. If you want a more detailed overview of how the data in Front Runners is organized and what it means, check out this Front Runners Tutorial Video. There is also a short written overview below.

Track Overview

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season comes to an end on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. Phoenix is a 1-mile tri-oval with minimal banking. The turns at Phoenix are progressively banked between eight to 11 degrees. The track does not have particularly aggressive tire wear. This means there can be a decision for teams on taking two vs four tires in some instances. When trying to handicap Phoenix the short flat tracks of Richmond, New Hampshire, and Iowa provide the most predictive data. While Martinsville is a short flat track, the track is only around 1/2 the length of Phoenix and features such different turns that data from Martinsville is not typically the most helpful.

Datasets for Front Runners

As this will be the sixth short flat track race in 2024 we have just two data sets. The first set is the five short flat track races in 2024 Phoenix (1), New Hampshire (1), Iowa (1), and Richmond (2). The second set is the five races in the Gen 7 car at Phoenix.

The charts below are sorted by percentage of laps led by default. There are also a few more columns that you can choose to display but for ease of display those columns are hidden by default. First, some notes on the data:

  • How percentages are calculated:
    • For laps in the Top 10, 5, 3, and led, the calculation is laps that driver completed in those positions divided by laps that driver has completed.
    • For fastest laps the calculation is fast laps recorded by the driver divided by all fast laps in the data set. Unfortunately its would be very complicated and overly time consuming to calculate how many fast laps were available while the driver was still running.
    • For laps run the calculation is laps completed by the driver divided by all laps possible in the data set.
  • Average running position is weighted by how much of a race the driver completed. So a driver completing 50% of one race with an average running position of 5 and 100% of a second race with an average running position of 15, will have a calculated average running position of 11.67, not 10, because the second race has twice as much weight.
  • Fin-Start takes the average finishing position of a driver and subtracts the driver’s average starting position from it. Negative numbers mean a driver has improved from the start, positive numbers mean the driver’s finishing position is worse than their starting position.
  • Fin-ARP take the the average finishing position of a driver and subtracts the driver’s average running position from it. As with Fin-Start, negative numbers show finishes better than average running position, while positive numbers show finishes worse than the driver’s average running position. In effect, positive numbers mean a driver has been unlucky, negative numbers suggest a driver has been lucky.

Driver Make Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run % Ave Run Ave Start Ave Finish Fin-Start Fin-ARP
Christopher Bell Toyota 5 5 1,193 67.02 3 822 46.18 2 600 33.71 2 337 18.93 228 15.36 1,780 99.89 7.99 12.20 3.60 -8.60 -4.39
Martin Truex Jr Toyota 5 3 1,027 63.36 1 720 44.42 0 548 33.81 0 281 17.33 127 8.56 1,621 90.97 10.20 11.60 14.40 2.80 4.20
Denny Hamlin Toyota 5 2 1,143 64.29 2 923 51.91 2 682 38.36 1 251 14.12 112 7.55 1,778 99.78 9.72 7.80 12.40 4.60 2.68
Kyle Larson Chevrolet 5 3 981 56.25 2 680 38.99 1 503 28.84 0 237 13.59 93 6.27 1,744 97.87 10.41 10.60 12.40 1.80 1.99
Ryan Blaney Ford 5 2 940 52.81 2 552 31.01 1 360 20.22 1 201 11.29 107 7.21 1,780 99.89 10.82 8.60 12.20 3.60 1.38
Tyler Reddick Toyota 5 4 945 53.12 1 556 31.25 1 281 15.80 0 129 7.25 52 3.50 1,779 99.83 10.11 11.00 10.20 -0.80 0.09
Daniel Suarez Chevrolet 5 2 533 29.94 0 226 12.70 0 172 9.66 0 97 5.45 56 3.77 1,780 99.89 16.57 16.00 15.00 -1.00 -1.57
Ty Gibbs Toyota 5 1 335 18.85 1 195 10.97 1 155 8.72 0 57 3.21 40 2.70 1,777 99.72 15.10 13.80 16.40 2.60 1.30
Chase Elliott Chevrolet 5 3 1,144 64.31 2 527 29.62 1 297 16.69 0 52 2.92 62 4.18 1,779 99.83 8.95 3.80 10.80 7.00 1.85
Austin Dillon Chevrolet 5 1 371 21.41 1 175 10.10 1 105 6.06 1 35 2.02 16 1.08 1,733 97.25 22.61 23.20 21.80 -1.40 -0.81
Josh Berry Ford 5 2 1,015 57.12 1 490 27.57 1 259 14.58 0 34 1.91 52 3.50 1,777 99.72 11.73 16.40 12.20 -4.20 0.47
Todd Gilliland Ford 5 0 484 27.19 0 193 10.84 0 82 4.61 0 33 1.85 27 1.82 1,780 99.89 16.49 17.60 15.80 -1.80 -0.69
Chris Buescher Ford 5 3 597 33.58 2 177 9.96 1 66 3.71 0 16 0.90 25 1.68 1,778 99.78 14.63 13.00 10.40 -2.60 -4.23
Brad Keselowski Ford 5 3 580 32.58 1 94 5.28 0 25 1.40 0 5 0.28 27 1.82 1,780 99.89 15.14 16.80 13.20 -3.60 -1.94
Bubba Wallace Toyota 5 1 829 47.70 1 430 24.74 0 133 7.65 0 4 0.23 28 1.89 1,738 97.53 12.04 13.60 16.80 3.20 4.76
Ricky Stenhouse Jr Chevrolet 5 2 249 14.09 1 147 8.32 0 48 2.72 0 4 0.23 12 0.81 1,767 99.16 20.39 25.00 20.40 -4.60 0.01
Joey Logano Ford 5 2 1,245 74.64 1 951 57.01 1 517 31.00 0 2 0.12 58 3.91 1,668 93.60 9.86 11.80 18.60 6.80 8.74
Carson Hocevar Chevrolet 5 1 173 9.74 0 23 1.29 0 7 0.39 0 2 0.11 13 0.88 1,777 99.72 19.70 18.80 16.20 -2.60 -3.50
Erik Jones Toyota 5 0 88 4.98 0 65 3.68 0 48 2.71 0 1 0.06 15 1.01 1,768 99.21 23.65 24.40 23.80 -0.60 0.15
William Byron Chevrolet 5 2 897 50.39 1 404 22.70 1 227 12.75 0 1 0.06 45 3.03 1,780 99.89 10.82 7.60 13.20 5.60 2.38
Ross Chastain Chevrolet 5 3 778 43.71 1 153 8.60 0 12 0.67 0 1 0.06 25 1.68 1,780 99.89 12.15 12.40 9.40 -3.00 -2.75
Michael McDowell Ford 5 1 528 29.70 0 62 3.49 0 30 1.69 0 0 0.00 37 2.49 1,778 99.78 18.63 23.00 17.40 -5.60 -1.23
Alex Bowman Chevrolet 5 1 462 28.61 0 122 7.55 0 82 5.08 0 0 0.00 15 1.01 1,615 90.63 15.69 16.80 21.80 5.00 6.11
Chase Briscoe Ford 5 2 309 17.39 1 68 3.83 1 49 2.76 0 0 0.00 14 0.94 1,777 99.72 18.89 18.80 15.60 -3.20 -3.29
Noah Gragson Ford 5 0 255 14.34 0 17 0.96 0 4 0.22 0 0 0.00 15 1.01 1,778 99.78 17.93 16.80 17.40 0.60 -0.53
Justin Haley Chevrolet 5 0 236 13.30 0 19 1.07 0 1 0.06 0 0 0.00 9 0.61 1,775 99.61 23.59 29.60 25.00 -4.60 1.41
Kyle Busch Chevrolet 5 0 201 12.43 0 50 3.09 0 6 0.37 0 0 0.00 46 3.10 1,617 90.74 20.90 19.00 24.80 5.80 3.90
Ryan Preece Ford 5 0 101 5.69 0 39 2.20 0 35 1.97 0 0 0.00 31 2.09 1,775 99.61 21.80 25.80 22.80 -3.00 1.00
Austin Cindric Ford 5 0 48 3.27 0 8 0.54 0 1 0.07 0 0 0.00 11 0.74 1,469 82.44 22.83 22.20 26.40 4.20 3.57
Harrison Burton Ford 5 0 43 2.43 0 1 0.06 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 4 0.27 1,772 99.44 27.11 26.60 25.40 -1.20 -1.71
Corey LaJoie Ford 5 0 39 2.35 0 9 0.54 0 6 0.36 0 0 0.00 20 1.35 1,663 93.32 27.30 26.00 29.40 3.40 2.10
John H. Nemechek Toyota 5 1 3 0.17 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 6 0.40 1,773 99.49 27.40 26.80 23.00 -3.80 -4.40
Kaz Grala Ford 4 0 1 0.07 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 7 0.47 1,362 76.43 31.08 32.50 29.00 -3.50 -2.08
Zane Smith Chevrolet 5 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 14 0.94 1,769 99.27 28.90 27.20 29.60 2.40 0.70
Daniel Hemric Chevrolet 5 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 5 0.34 1,770 99.33 31.61 30.00 29.60 -0.40 -2.01

Driver Make Races T10 Fin T10 Laps T10% T5 Fin T5 Laps T5% T3 Fin T3 Laps T3% Wins Led LL% Fast Laps FL% Laps Laps Run % Ave Run Ave Start Ave Finish Fin-Start Fin-ARP
Ryan Blaney Ford 5 5 1,385 88.50 5 749 47.86 3 584 37.32 0 257 16.42 166 12.46 1,565 100.00 5.90 8.40 3.00 -5.40 -2.90
Kyle Larson Chevrolet 5 3 1,082 72.52 2 797 53.42 1 479 32.10 0 202 13.54 81 6.08 1,492 95.34 8.37 6.60 12.80 6.20 4.43
Joey Logano Ford 5 2 566 38.87 1 342 23.49 1 299 20.54 1 190 13.05 45 3.38 1,456 93.04 12.53 13.40 14.40 1.00 1.87
William Byron Chevrolet 5 3 1,366 87.28 2 1,058 67.60 1 517 33.04 1 172 10.99 127 9.53 1,565 100.00 5.77 4.00 9.40 5.40 3.63
Ross Chastain Chevrolet 5 4 1,113 71.12 3 560 35.78 3 292 18.66 1 158 10.10 93 6.98 1,565 100.00 8.29 13.60 7.20 -6.40 -1.09
Chase Briscoe Ford 5 4 945 60.38 2 477 30.48 1 307 19.62 1 114 7.28 82 6.16 1,565 100.00 10.94 13.40 9.00 -4.40 -1.94
Ty Gibbs Toyota 3 1 259 27.55 1 194 20.64 1 154 16.38 0 57 6.06 20 1.50 940 60.06 14.49 9.00 17.33 8.33 2.84
Denny Hamlin Toyota 5 2 807 51.57 0 439 28.05 0 354 22.62 0 82 5.24 57 4.28 1,565 100.00 9.98 6.40 12.60 6.20 2.62
Tyler Reddick Toyota 5 3 1,038 66.37 2 458 29.28 2 219 14.00 0 68 4.35 56 4.20 1,564 99.94 10.08 10.20 12.20 2.00 2.12
Chase Elliott Chevrolet 4 0 654 52.49 0 411 32.99 0 274 21.99 0 50 4.01 51 3.83 1,246 79.62 12.90 11.75 18.50 6.75 5.60
Martin Truex Jr Toyota 5 2 830 56.39 0 455 30.91 0 172 11.68 0 55 3.74 81 6.08 1,472 94.06 11.17 11.60 16.00 4.40 4.83
Christopher Bell Toyota 5 3 834 61.37 1 398 29.29 1 197 14.50 1 50 3.68 95 7.13 1,359 86.84 10.83 10.40 15.80 5.40 4.97
Chris Buescher Ford 5 3 447 28.56 2 197 12.59 1 111 7.09 0 18 1.15 44 3.30 1,565 100.00 14.88 17.80 10.60 -7.20 -4.28
Todd Gilliland Ford 5 0 105 6.75 0 48 3.08 0 34 2.19 0 14 0.90 1 0.08 1,556 99.42 26.09 27.20 25.40 -1.80 -0.69
Erik Jones Toyota 5 0 356 22.86 0 106 6.81 0 80 5.14 0 14 0.90 17 1.28 1,557 99.49 15.95 13.00 22.20 9.20 6.25
Brad Keselowski Ford 5 1 647 42.51 1 148 9.72 0 6 0.39 0 1 0.07 14 1.05 1,522 97.25 15.53 17.80 19.00 1.20 3.47
Alex Bowman Chevrolet 5 1 263 16.89 0 15 0.96 0 2 0.13 0 1 0.06 16 1.20 1,557 99.49 16.09 19.80 18.80 -1.00 2.71
Noah Gragson Ford 2 0 167 26.59 0 5 0.80 0 3 0.48 0 0 0.00 5 0.38 628 40.13 18.69 19.50 20.50 1.00 1.81
Kyle Busch Chevrolet 5 3 311 19.90 0 48 3.07 0 26 1.66 0 0 0.00 10 0.75 1,563 99.87 16.16 18.20 13.80 -4.40 -2.36
Bubba Wallace Toyota 5 1 298 19.07 0 70 4.48 0 19 1.22 0 0 0.00 8 0.60 1,563 99.87 17.37 19.20 16.80 -2.40 -0.57
Austin Dillon Chevrolet 5 0 209 13.43 0 3 0.19 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 7 0.53 1,556 99.42 21.80 21.80 18.80 -3.00 -3.00
Michael McDowell Ford 5 2 203 13.00 0 17 1.09 0 4 0.26 0 0 0.00 7 0.53 1,562 99.81 20.07 15.40 16.40 1.00 -3.67
Austin Cindric Ford 5 0 141 11.31 0 4 0.32 0 4 0.32 0 0 0.00 15 1.13 1,247 79.68 22.49 20.60 26.20 5.60 3.71
Carson Hocevar Chevrolet 2 0 64 10.26 0 12 1.92 0 1 0.16 0 0 0.00 4 0.30 624 39.87 18.94 16.00 17.00 1.00 -1.94
Ryan Preece Ford 3 0 62 6.60 0 41 4.36 0 37 3.94 0 0 0.00 11 0.83 940 60.06 18.13 21.33 16.33 -5.00 -1.80
Daniel Suarez Chevrolet 5 1 99 6.33 0 2 0.13 0 2 0.13 0 0 0.00 5 0.38 1,564 99.94 16.90 18.60 15.80 -2.80 -1.10
Ricky Stenhouse Jr Chevrolet 5 0 58 3.72 0 26 1.67 0 12 0.77 0 0 0.00 12 0.90 1,558 99.55 26.12 26.40 24.60 -1.80 -1.52
Harrison Burton Ford 5 0 49 3.16 0 6 0.39 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 1 0.08 1,552 99.17 26.20 21.20 27.20 6.00 1.00
Kaz Grala Ford 1 0 1 0.32 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 309 19.74 32.05 32.00 30.00 -2.00 -2.05
Josh Berry Ford 2 1 2 0.32 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 3 0.23 627 40.06 21.57 26.50 18.00 -8.50 -3.57
Corey LaJoie Ford 5 0 3 0.25 0 2 0.17 0 1 0.08 0 0 0.00 37 2.78 1,185 75.72 28.24 29.80 28.80 -1.00 0.56
Justin Haley Chevrolet 5 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 1,560 99.68 27.52 29.60 24.80 -4.80 -2.72
Zane Smith Chevrolet 2 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 11 0.83 624 39.87 29.77 31.00 30.00 -1.00 0.23
Daniel Hemric Chevrolet 2 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 3 0.23 622 39.74 24.48 15.50 22.50 7.00 -1.98
John H. Nemechek Toyota 1 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 2 0.15 311 19.87 23.87 19.00 25.00 6.00 1.13

Front Runners are great to compare with our other Advanced Analytics. Check out our Pre-Practice/Qualifying Ranks, and Sim Center as well!

Thank you all for taking the time to look at this. Let’s WIN THE RACE !