At WIN THE RACE, we provide NASCAR enthusiasts with powerful tools, insights, and analytics to give you the ultimate edge in betting and DFS. Here’s what we offer:
OUR CONTENT
Early/Mid Week
Loop Data: Cup/Xfinity/Truck – Box Score, Average Running Position, Closers, Driver Rating, Fastest Drivers Early in a Run, Fastest Drivers Late in a Run, Fastest Laps Run, Fastest on Restarts, Green Flag Passes, Green Flag Speed, Laps in Top 15, Laps Led, Quality Passes, and Speed by Segment.
Pit Stop Scores/Penalties: Cup – 4 tire pit stop scores vs the field, updated each week. This will exclude tracks where 2 tire stops are as common as 4 tire stops, and races where there are very few pit stops made and the sample size isn’t large enough. In a separate table, we will include every penalty each driver/team has committed.
True Performance Lab: Cup/Xfinity/Truck – Taking Loop Data to the next level. True Performance Scores, Incident Adjusted Speed, True Average Running Position, Laps Led %, Fast Lap %, and the % each driver has been running Top 10, Top 5, and Top 3. This is broken down by package. True Performance has helped fans, bettors, fantasy players, and analysts for years. We view True Performance as “Insider Intelligence” for anyone who wants to go above and beyond traditional stats.
Pre-Practice/Qualifying Scores: Cup/Xfinity/Truck – Pre-P/Q Ranks consist of a weighted value, utilizing some but not all of the following: True Performance Scores, equipment and incident adjusted speed and ratings at the current track, and at correlated tracks.
SIM FMV: Cup (Xfinity/Truck when able) – SIM FMV delivers unparalleled accuracy by simulating each NASCAR race 20,000 times using our proprietary performance scores. These scores fuel the simulations with the most reliable data, producing fair market value odds for winners, top 10s, podiums, manufacturers, and head-to-head matchups. By combining advanced analytics with precise data, SIM FMV gives you a clear edge over the sportsbooks, helping you make smarter, value-driven decisions.
Head to Head Fair Market Value: Cup (Xfinity/Truck when able) – Head to Head Fair Market Value features the matchup and DraftKings DFS winning probability for every possible matchup in a race.
Finishing Position Fair Market Value: Cup (Xfinity/Truck when able) – Finishing Position Over/Under features the probability that a driver finishes better or worse than each finishing position in a race.
Betting Card: Cup – Greg Matherne’s Cup Series Betting Card will be updated throughout the week. It is most important to join Discord, as he will @ the betting channel when bets are placed. Lines move fast!
After Practice/Qualifying
Practice/Post-P/Q Scores: Cup (Xfinity/Truck when able) – Our method of scoring drivers after practice and qualifying.
Practice Ready
Practice sessions often provide crucial insights into performance, offering a first glimpse at who might have the edge. Fast laps, long-run speed, and consistency during practice can signal which teams and drivers are well-prepared heading into qualifying and beyond. However, no matter how much you analyze it, variables like traffic, missed laps, tire wear, qualifying-focused setups, and more can sometimes obscure the full picture.
Race Readiness
While the fastest car in practice is sometimes the fastest on race day, that’s not always the case. Conversely, a poor practice session doesn’t necessarily mean a slow race car. Teams can adjust setups, adopt configurations from faster teammates, or resolve early struggles to find speed before the green flag drops.
Final Score
Final Scores combine key insights from throughout the week with practice and qualifying data from the weekend to deliver a comprehensive performance evaluation. The goal is to provide a clearer, more reliable outlook on who is truly race ready, helping you make informed, data-driven decisions while accounting for the unpredictable nature of racing.
SIM FMV Update: Cup (Xfinity/Truck when able) – SIM FMV will be ran again when the books open back up. We will update our performance scores after Practice and Qualifying, run the simulations again, and update the fair market value odds. This will include updates to the Head to Head Fair Market Value and Finishing Position Fair Market Value.
DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Projections: Cup (Xfinity/Truck when able) – Probability-driven NASCAR DFS projections using 20,000 simulations are superior to basic, single-outcome projections because they account for the inherent variability and unpredictability of racing. By simulating the race thousands of times, these projections capture a range of possible outcomes for each driver, such as crashes, pit strategy impacts, and performance variability. This method provides a more comprehensive view of a driver’s potential, including upside, downside, and likelihood of finishing in key positions. In contrast, single-outcome projections oversimplify the race by assuming one deterministic result, ignoring the volatility that makes NASCAR unique and can create value in DFS contests.
Probability Driven DFS Targets: Cup – This includes strategy on lineup construction for the current race, and our favorite options for domination, upside, and leverage.
Betting Card Update: Cup – If Greg adds anything after practice and qualifying, this will be updated. Again, it is most important to join Discord, as he will @ the betting channel when bets are placed.
Everyday
Members Only Discord: It is always important to be in Discord. Beyond our experts, many sharp minds are always talking through DFS & Betting strategies. We have had much success tailing more than just our own thoughts! You can join Discord on Your Profile.
